Gobble-die Guck

I am becoming quietly obsessed about the stock market. This is not an obsession that I have previously shared with you all, but one that I have kept in my back pocket as a sort of surprise. Surprise! Anyway, it seems to me, and I know that in some ways this is a bit naive, that one can, with relative security, predict certain macrocosmic movements on the market. I started learning about markets and money last year after having won a settlement against a horrible driver who made a traffic violation resulting in my breaking both my wrists and two bones in my back. Thank you, you know who, wherever you are. The casts on both arms for 3 months were such a pleasant experience and the metal pin in my wrist will certainly remain a permanent reminder of what a bad driver can do to you... Anyway, the point being, I have some money to invest (I have, to this day, only told one person just how much it is: Christoph.) But, before I actually do something, I gots to learn how de whole thing works...

Had I invested in one of my pet projects from last year, I would have doubled my money. But, I didn’t. It all is just sitting in a bank somewhere waiting for me to build my know-how and nerve. The spiking oil prices of last summer were certain to drive the heating oil prices up, I thought. They did. This spike in how much people would have to pay to heat their homes would drive many to do what people in the 70s did—to buy solar fuel panels and put them on their roofs. They did. Over the winter, a couple of the better solar companies made quite a profit.

Anyway, that is all lead up to my newest harebrain idea...I have been watching the reports of bird flu for some time. The real threat of the flu has only been to our food source and to those humans who work closely with their own bird flocks. But, yesterday, NPR reported that there is a potential case of human-to-human bird flu in Indonesia. Just as bird flu itself moved slowly from Asia to Europe, etc., so will a human to human strain move, probably more quickly, to the entire world. Human to human transmission also means, presumably, that one only need have relatively close contact with someone who has it in order to catch it. Probably within a month, if the case in Indonesia is true, there will be a worldwide panic about the flu going on. And, there is only one company that controls the rights to the antidote: Roche Pharmaceuticals in Switzerland. Need I say more?

The most ironic thing is that I looked at solar power because I somehow believe that one can benefit from bad consumer trends and still not get one’s hands dirty. The thinking was that, even if big oil were making huge profits and would be making even more in the future at the expense of, especially, American consumers, I could still make money from anticipating the buying trends of those people who would reject the idea of being big oil’s bitch. It is a way to encourage the right kind of investment...investment in fuel efficiency and alternative energy sources. But, the whole bird flu thing is a bit more difficult to rationalize morally. Should I make big bucks off of thousands of people who will absolutely have to have a shot because of their own hypochondria even when the disease will probably be quelled within the first 6 months? Hmmm. Making money off of other people’s stupidity...I’m not sure about this one.